Storm Outlook

Well, if the models and ensembles are right, The New England coastal areas are in for quite a storm. The GFS, which is the furthest south and west, still has several inches of Snow for Southeast New England. However, the GFS is the outlyer, the rest of the models I look at for this far out, 4 in total, show a massive storm off the coast of atleast 984 millibars. The DGEX shows 980 millibars!!! I've seen the words Historic and Blizzard tossed around like candy. The track of the storm is still uncertain and that will greatly affect the area as rain and other forms of frozen precipitation may come into play. Stay tuned for further updates.

The B word Blizzard

The GFS model remains the odd model out while the Euro, DGEX, JMA, and UKMET have gone to the solution of a major snowstorm hitting the Mid-Atlantic and New England.Even the GFS shows a decent storm with roughly 6 inches through the I-95 corridor. The track of this storm must be watched closely as it will determine the snowfall amounts as a powerful Nor'Easter, dare I say Blizzard spins to our south. Stay tuned for further updates.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1100 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN HERKIMER

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY.

Narrow bands of lake effect snow will persist into the overnight hours, before concentrating again into a single heavy band of snow which is forecast to retreat into Oswego and Northern Oneida County by 1 AM.

In areas affected by the most persistent bands, snow totals pf 2 to 5 inches will occur before the snow tapers off.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory is issued when lake effect snow is forecast to develop in the affected ares, but accumulations are expected to remain below 7 inches in a 12 hour period in most areas. Those who must travel in the advisory area should set aside extra driving time to reach their destinations.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio all-hazards or your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

Winter Storm Warning- Lake Effect Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1004 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007

Jefferson-Lewis-Oswego-Northern Oneida

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY.

A band of lake effect snow across Oswego County this evening will become better organized and will lift back north into the area after midnight. The lake snows should be in the form of a single plume in the vicinity of the Tug Hill Plateau by Saturday morning. The moderate to heavy snow is then likely to remain in this general area through much of the weekend.

As a result, fresh snowfall over the weekend could easily total 2 feet across the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall amounts will drop off dramaticall from the vicinity of Watertown and Beaver Falls Northward. Another 5-10 inches of snow is expected in Oswego County and Northern Oneida County.

lake effect snow, the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay Tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and TV stations or check back with this blog for further details and NWS updates.

Winter Storm for New England?

Snow, and potentially lots of it. Thats the story for today as the forecast models play the game of "which way will it go". The latest runs of the models are once again bringing the storm further north, bringing the potential of a major winter storm for the I-95 corridor late Tuesday into Wednesday. With the storm still several days away, it will need to be watched closely. As we have seen many times this winter, the models show us a storm. Once again, we are left asking, is this really going to happen this time?

The lake effect snow machine is still churning in high gear in western New York. Several counties are still under a Winter Storm Warning for lake effect snow and storm totals will break 100 inches in places. I will update the watches and warnings throughout the area this evening.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 944 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN FULTON

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

Scattered snow showers will continue across the area through midnight. A band of heavier lake effect snow showers will drop south across the area after midnight and continue through early Friday morning, producing a quick 2 to 5 inches of snow in many places. Occasional snow showers will then continue through the day Friday, producing another 2 to 4 inches of snow. Snowfall totals, will range from 4 to 8 inches, with the higest amounts west of Route 28 in Herkimer County.

In addition, west winds gusting up to 35 MPH will result in significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

A Lake Effect Snow Advisory means lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel difficult, but accumulations are expected to remain below 7 inches in a 12 hour period in most areas. Those who must travel in the advisory area should set aside extra driving time to reach their destinations and use caution when traveling.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1030 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY.

Lake effect snow has reorganized and will dump another 2 to 4 inches over parts of Wyoming, Chautaqua, Cattaraugus, and Erie Counties. New accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible in the most persistent bands from late tonight through Friday in Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, and Wayne Counties.

In addition to the snowfall, gusty west winds will continue to produce blowing and drifting snow, especially on north/south roads where brief whiteouts are possible.

In lake effect snow, the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region, be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and TV stations for further details and updates from the National Weather Service.

Winter Storm Warning- Lake Effect Snow Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 754 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

JEFFERSON- OSWEGO-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ONEIDA- NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON

A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect.

Lake Effect Snows are expected over much of the area through 9 PM then settling Southward again late this evening and overnight.

A Lake Effect Snow Warning means significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

A quick 2 to 4 inches is expected from Watertown north, with new accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible in areas in Southern Jefferson County and Northern Cayuga County. 10 to 15 inches of new snow accumulations are possible in Oswego County and on The Tug Hill in Lewis County in the more persistent bands. Oneida County, Northern Herkimer County and Hamilton County can expect and additional 5 to 10 inches of new accumulation. This will bring week long storm total accumulations to more than 90 inches in some areas.

In addition to heavy snowfall, gusty west winds will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, creating hazardous driving conditions with near whiteout conditions at times.

Additional heavy lake effect snow is possible from Friday night into the weekend. Lake Effect Snow Warnings may need to be extended through the weekend.

Travel will be extremely difficult if not impossible at times across the Eastern Lake Onatrio region through Friday morning, especially on north/south roads such as Interstate 81 and Routes 11 and 3. In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands intense enough to drop 1 to several inches of snow per hour for several hours to clear skies just a few miles away. Visibilities vary greatly and can drop to zero within minutes. Travel is strongly discouraged. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road conditions. Commerce could be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Stay tuned to your favorite news outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

Winter Weather Advisory-Wind Chill Advisory

p>URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1006 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR ZERO TO PRODUCE A WIND CHILL AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET- 1006 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY

West to Northwest winds averaging between 10 and 15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH will combine with temperatures falling to near zero to produce a wind chill near 15 below.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors, make sure to dress in layers and wear a hat and gloves.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory/Blowing snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY

Lake Effect Snow off Lake Erie has once again increased in intensity and is expected to create problems overnight. The areas affected will be mainly over Wyoming and Southern Erie Counties but also the Northern sections of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. Expect 3 to 6 inches of new snow in the most persistent lake effect bands between 9 PM and 6 AM. The low density snow combined with gusty winds wil lalso create hazardous driving conditions in blowing and drifting snow. North/South Routes will be the worst.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1004 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

On Thursday, Snow showers will redevelop across the area as the band shifts South and weakens. Accumulations will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range from the Thruway North, with up to an inch further south.

Thursday evening, a new band of lake effect snows will develop over the region that may persist into Thursday night and Friday.

While future forecasts will refine the expected location of the band, significant snowfall is possible across the area beginning Thursday night and tapering off during the early afternoon on Friday.

At this time, it appears that the best chances for significant snowfall will be along and north of the New York State Thruway, including locations such as Baldwinsville, Brewerton, Cicero, Rome, and Holland Patent. New snowfall may exceed 7 inches in these locations by the early afternoon on Friday.

A lake Effect Snow Watch means there is a potential for Lake Effect Snows to produce 7 inches or more of snow in 12 hours or less. Which could significantly impact travel. If you are planning to travel in the watch area, please stay tuned to your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service

Winter Storm Watch-Lake Effect Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN ...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A lake effect snow watch remains in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Intense lake effect snows east of Lake Ontario are expected to shift South into portions of Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties Thursday night into Friday. Meandering North and South at times.

There is a potential for a foot or more of snow in the most persistent bands from Thurdday night through Friday as lake effect snows push into the area. A lake effect snow watch means that significant winter weather is possible in localized areas within the next 36 hours. Stay tuned to the NWS and other radio and TV stations for further details or updates.

Winter Storm Warning- Lake Effect Snow Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT

A band of heavy snow will lift north into portions of Southern and Central Lewis County, Southern Jefferson County, Northern Oswego County, Northern Herkimer County and Northern Hamilton County, late this afternoon and remain nearly stationary overnight and Thursday morning before dropping south again in the afternoon. Snowfall rates will reach 4 to 5 inches per hour under the most intense portion of the band. Additional accumulations of 2 to 3 feet are likely over portions of the Tug Hill tonight…with 12 to 18 inches possible in portions of the Black River Valley and Western Adirondacks.

Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 feet are likely over the Southern sections of Jefferson County with 3 feet possible along the Oswego County line. Additional accumulations tonight will reach 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent bands over the Northern sections of Oswego County, with more snow expected Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 15 inches are expected in the most persistent areas of snow across Northern Herkimer County. 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected in Hamilton County. The snow should be at its heaviest Thursday morning. With areas along or North of Route 28 and West of Route 30 receiving the greatest snowfall. This will bring storm totals for the week to 100 inches or more in some locations.

In addition to the extreme snowfall amounts, strong winds will create near blizzard conditions at times, especially near the edges of the Lake Effect Snow Bands where winds are typically stronger than under the center of the band. The gusty west winds will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. Travel will be extremely difficult or even impossible at times through Thursday evening, especially on North/South roads such as interstate 81.

A Lake Effect Snow Warning means significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Lake-Effect Snow showers typically align themselves in bands and will likely be intense enough to drop 1 to several inches of snow per hour for several hours. Visibilities vary greatly and can drop to zero within minues. Travel is strongly discouraged. Commerce could be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Watching and Waiting

The long range forecast models show the potential for a storm the middle of next week in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. Once again, the snow geese are at the mercy of time as we sit and wait and watch. This is the 8th time this year that the models have tormented me this far out with possibilities and temptations of storms only to fizzle the idea completely and watch as it goes out to sea well to our south or just fails to develop. I will be watching this possibility as it gets closer to more of the models ranges and see what pans out.

There's a little more than a chill to the air

As of 11:30 PM EST, all temperatures around the northeast are below 20°F, though few places reached high temperatures in the 20s today. With readings this low, wind chills around the northeast are well below zero. In addition, the westerly wind has allowed for the development of a decent lake effect band that is moving from Lake Ontario, through the northern suburbs of Syracuse, NY. Earlier in the day visibilities in this area were down to about 1/10th of a mile. A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect for the NY counties from Lake Ontario, across to Syracuse and to Utica, NY. At the end of this event, the highest snowfalls could easily be above a foot or two.
NWS Lake Effect Snow Warning Update

King of the Cold

Well, the cold has set in and it doesn't seem ready to leave anytime soon. We are now prepared for 200 straight hours of sub freezing temperatures. With highs set to be in the 20's through next week and lows set to be in the teens to single digits, we are in for a cold spell of monstrous proportions. No snow seems to be associated with this artic outbreak, but it seems to me only a matter of time before we get hit with something. The long range models seem to indicate a storm next week, but out that far, the models are unreliable at best. So snow lovers, the no snow season continues and the cold just keeps on coming.