The game begins again

With a couple of small clipper systems in between this Friday and next, there is really nothing all that huge to talk about. The air will get milder as we go from temperatures in the lower to mid twenties up to temps around freezing with a few days going above freezing. With a little luck, it will give the areas in New York that were hit hard some time to clear a couple feet of snow out of the area. In the mean time, the clipper system this weekend will do nothing more than bring a few flurries to the Boston area, with the following clipper system a coating to 2 inches on Tuesday. The European model is showing another monstrous storm off the east coast by this time next week and that will be the topic of conversation for days to come.

Storm Mode - Ideas coming together

Snow is expected to begin across the region this evening. The snow should quickly become heavy at time by daybreak Wednesday. This will have a significant impact on the Wednesday morning rush hour. In fact, snow may be falling at 1-2 inches per hour by early Wednesday morning, limiting visibilities to a quarter mile at time. The snow will gradually transition to a mixture of precipitation during early Wednesday afternoon as warmer air aloft moves overhead. This will make travel even more hazardous, with some icing possible. Blowing and Drifting snow may beomce an increasing threat Wednesday night and Thursday.

A Heavy Snow Warning is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight Wednesday for Cheshire, Western and Central Hillsborough County NH, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 15-20” of snow across the northwest part of the warning area with isolated 2 foot amounts possible in the east slopes of the Berkshires and the Monadnocks. 8-15” of snow is expected away from this area

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight Wednesday night for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island and Windham County of Northeast Connecticut. Storm totals of 7-14” with significant icing is expected away from the coast, north and west of Route 128 except for Western Kent County RI where 6-10” and considerable icing is expected with 5-8” near the Eastern Massachusetts coast with considerable icing possible

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight through midnight Wednesday night for Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including the South Coasts of RI and Massachusetts. The Cape and Islands are not under an advisory. Total snowfall in this area will range from 3-6” with a glaze of ice possible. Precipitation will mix with ice and change to rain but then change back to ice and snow before ending

A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island including Cape Cod and Islands for the potential of strong to damaging winds in this area Wednesday particularly in the afternoon and evening with the potential for wind gusts of 60-70 MPH. Other parts of Southern New England could see strong winds of up to 40-50 MPH with possible higher gusts which could cause the potential for blizzard or near-blizzard conditions.

Stay tuned to you local media station for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

The Storm approaches 6- uncertain track

The weather models continue to confound any attempt to get a consensus. The WRF is the furthest West, bringing the low pressure center up through New Jersey, and into New York. 3 models, the NAM, GFS and Canadien all send the center across Cape Cod or slightly west of there. Another 3 models, the JMA, Ukmet and NGM, all run the storm in between the 40/70 benchmark and Cape Cod. The Euro, which had run the storm off the coast as well, begins its run at 72 hours into the future, and thus does not allow me to see the storm pass the New England area, but its 72 hour location agrees with that last trio which leads me to believe that the storm will pass closer to Nantucket and the outer cape than it will Boston. I am hoping that the models will come to some sort of agreement later Tuesday.

Tuesday's high temperature is forecast to be 25 degrees. It will be interesting to see how cold it really is and how far south the cold spreads. The storm will begins as snow, and I expect 1-3 inches of snow for most locations on the ground before it changes to a mix from the 128 belt southeastward and to rain on the Cape and coastal areas. The danger of an ice event is still in play as the low level cold air may stick in place in some areas close to Boston. The Rain and mix will then change back to snow Wednesday evening and additional moderate accumulations are possible. The track of this storm will very much tell the tale of precipitation. If the track heads further inland, longer periods of rain and mix will impact the Boston area and the mix could impact as far inland as Worcester. If the storm heads further off-shore, there would be greater snow amounts, especially in the Providence RI, Plymouth MA, Boston MA area as it would snow for longer periods.

The Storm Approaches 5 - The models shift East

All models except 1 now indicate an eastward track close to the 40 north 70 west benchmark, the NAM model being the lone outlyer brings the center of low pressure over Cape Cod near Hyannis. With this track to the storm, the snow totals go up as cold air will remain longer and the change over will be shorter along the coast. I am currently forecasting 5-10 inches of snow in the Boston area down to about Marshfield with accumulations droping off from there toward the cape which will only get 1-2 inches, the danger here, is the ice. I do not believe that temperatures are going to rise all that much and that the mixture that falls will be sleet and/or freezing rain. Ice build up can cause severe problems in a very short time, especially with the wind and snow that will come along with it. Please stay tuned to your local media stations for further details about this potentially dangerous storm.

The Storm Approaches 4- A lot to talk about

A major nor’easter remains likely for most of Southern New England, but while confidence is slowly increasing on the details, uncertainty remains in the forecast. Some models keep an inside runner track over the region resulting in a snow to mix/rain to snow event for the region. Other models, however, remain with an offshore solution closer to the 40 North/70 West benchmark or even further offshore of the region. One model which was converging with the inside track runs is now much further offshore with the system. The exact track of the storm will determine snow amounts and precipitation type over the region, while the intensity of the low along with the storm track will determine how strong the winds will be. Minor coastal flooding is possible if the storm does not move quickly and strong Northeast winds are occurring at the time of high tide

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Tuesday Evening to late Wednesday Night for Southern New Hampshire, Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Massachusetts north and west of a Marshfield to Foxboro line. At this time, a mix or changeover to sleet is possible as far inland as Central New Hampshire and through Northern Connecticut, however, a further offshore solution would bring more snow and less mixed precipitation and increased snowfall amounts.

Due to the uncertainty of this storm, it is imperative that you stay tuned to your local media stations for further updates. Given this storm is one of the first potentially major storms of the 2006-2007 winter, now is the time to prepare and make sure you have needed items at home to weather a nor’easter. This includes food, and drink for several days, winter supplies for the home including a shovel, enough gas for a snowblower and other equipment as well as any appropriate items for a winter survival kit for your car. Unlike some of the past major nor’easters which hit near or on the weekend, this one will affect the work week so preparations should be made in case you run into difficulties during commute time when the storm hits.

The storm approaches 3- the model calamity continues

The NAM model continues to push the storm up into the Worcester County area in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, the GFS has switched back from a track taking the storm into interior Mass and is sending the storm just east of Cape Cod again. I believe that track to be more correct as the storm will attempt to go around the cold air in place. I still believe that the storm will be mostly snow for most places with the exceptions being Cape Cod and the islands. While Mixing will take place along the coastal areas, especially locations south of Boston, the passage of the storm off the coastand the associated wind shift combined with the upward motion will quickly swing the mix back to snow. The track of this storm, is still very uncertain, making total accumulations all but impossible to tabulate.

Stay tuned to you local medioa outlets for further details.

The Storm Approaches 2- Ice Event??

The Winter Storm Watches have spread into Central Pennsylvania. The forecast models have begun to bring the storm inland which would bring about mostly rain. There is also a risk that an ice storm could take place as warmer air flows over the denser cold air.

However, the forecast models are notorious for dancing around with these storms, especially given the configuration of the atmosphere. There is an arctic front coming into the storm which means temperatures while it is snowing will be in the teens and 20s in places. Some places may even be near 10 and snowing. Also, the climatology of storms redeveloping near the Virginia capes says that the storm will move northeast off Cape Cod and intensify as it does so. As the pressures fall, cold air is drawn into the storm and any mix that would normally occur would be snow.

Water temperatues throughout the area are in the lowers 40's with air temperatures below freezing at this time over the ocean. The only bouy reporting above freezing temps is 200 nautical miles south of Long Island. Water temps at the coast according to reading near Providence and Boston are in the mid 30's.

I feel that the density of that air is something the models will miss and the storm should remain mainly snow. This happens with deepening storms with alot of low level cold air, once that fresh cold air gets into the lower levels, precipitation that under normal circumstances would be rain, will remain snow. The water temperatures are not extrodinarily warm and while they will play a part in warming air along the coast, I do not feel they will play a huge factor. The air mass we will be in is just that cold. Therefore, I will presntly forecast a mainly snow event for all locations except Cape Cod and the extreme Southern Coast of MA and RI where a change over to a mix or rain is possible, the further west you go, the better your chances for all Snow.

Stay tuned to your local media stations for further updates.

The Storm approaches- Winter Storm Watch for Western Pennsylvania

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A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A storm system moving in from the Southern Plains will bring the potential for a significant snowfall across the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Although there is some uncertainty with the track and timing, this system has the potential to produce high impact weather across the region.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travle conditions. Stay tuned to your favorite local media for further updates.

An end in sight for Lake Effect Snow

Bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue to oscillate across the eastern Lake Ontario region through Sunday night.

The heaviest bands will remain south of the region through the wee hours of the morning. However, as the winds turn more southwesterly overnight, the band will lift north across Southern Lewis County and reach Southern Jefferson County by morning. The snowbands will then continue to lift north during Sunday and reach the Watertown area by afternoon and possibly reach the St. Lawrence Valley later in the day.

Snow will fall at a rate of 2-4 inches an hour within the most intense bands, but should be migratory enough to limit accumulations to 6-12 inches throughout the area.

The snows should then move back south in conjunction with the cold front. Several more inches of snow can accumulate during the frontal passage. Lake snows should finally shut down Monday Morning. Total storm accumulations have been as high as 110 inches of snow. Winter Storm Warnings -Lake Effect Snow Warning have been posted, for Jefferson, Oswego, Oneida, Lewis, Cayuga and Wayne Counties. Winter Weather Advisories- Lake Effect Snow Advisories, have been posted for Ononodaga and Madison Counties.

Remember, in lake effect snow bands the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region, be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to your local media stations for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.