Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory/Blowing snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY

Lake Effect Snow off Lake Erie has once again increased in intensity and is expected to create problems overnight. The areas affected will be mainly over Wyoming and Southern Erie Counties but also the Northern sections of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. Expect 3 to 6 inches of new snow in the most persistent lake effect bands between 9 PM and 6 AM. The low density snow combined with gusty winds wil lalso create hazardous driving conditions in blowing and drifting snow. North/South Routes will be the worst.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1004 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

On Thursday, Snow showers will redevelop across the area as the band shifts South and weakens. Accumulations will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range from the Thruway North, with up to an inch further south.

Thursday evening, a new band of lake effect snows will develop over the region that may persist into Thursday night and Friday.

While future forecasts will refine the expected location of the band, significant snowfall is possible across the area beginning Thursday night and tapering off during the early afternoon on Friday.

At this time, it appears that the best chances for significant snowfall will be along and north of the New York State Thruway, including locations such as Baldwinsville, Brewerton, Cicero, Rome, and Holland Patent. New snowfall may exceed 7 inches in these locations by the early afternoon on Friday.

A lake Effect Snow Watch means there is a potential for Lake Effect Snows to produce 7 inches or more of snow in 12 hours or less. Which could significantly impact travel. If you are planning to travel in the watch area, please stay tuned to your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service

Winter Storm Watch-Lake Effect Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN ...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A lake effect snow watch remains in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Intense lake effect snows east of Lake Ontario are expected to shift South into portions of Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties Thursday night into Friday. Meandering North and South at times.

There is a potential for a foot or more of snow in the most persistent bands from Thurdday night through Friday as lake effect snows push into the area. A lake effect snow watch means that significant winter weather is possible in localized areas within the next 36 hours. Stay tuned to the NWS and other radio and TV stations for further details or updates.

Winter Storm Warning- Lake Effect Snow Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT

A band of heavy snow will lift north into portions of Southern and Central Lewis County, Southern Jefferson County, Northern Oswego County, Northern Herkimer County and Northern Hamilton County, late this afternoon and remain nearly stationary overnight and Thursday morning before dropping south again in the afternoon. Snowfall rates will reach 4 to 5 inches per hour under the most intense portion of the band. Additional accumulations of 2 to 3 feet are likely over portions of the Tug Hill tonight…with 12 to 18 inches possible in portions of the Black River Valley and Western Adirondacks.

Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 feet are likely over the Southern sections of Jefferson County with 3 feet possible along the Oswego County line. Additional accumulations tonight will reach 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent bands over the Northern sections of Oswego County, with more snow expected Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 15 inches are expected in the most persistent areas of snow across Northern Herkimer County. 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected in Hamilton County. The snow should be at its heaviest Thursday morning. With areas along or North of Route 28 and West of Route 30 receiving the greatest snowfall. This will bring storm totals for the week to 100 inches or more in some locations.

In addition to the extreme snowfall amounts, strong winds will create near blizzard conditions at times, especially near the edges of the Lake Effect Snow Bands where winds are typically stronger than under the center of the band. The gusty west winds will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. Travel will be extremely difficult or even impossible at times through Thursday evening, especially on North/South roads such as interstate 81.

A Lake Effect Snow Warning means significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Lake-Effect Snow showers typically align themselves in bands and will likely be intense enough to drop 1 to several inches of snow per hour for several hours. Visibilities vary greatly and can drop to zero within minues. Travel is strongly discouraged. Commerce could be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Watching and Waiting

The long range forecast models show the potential for a storm the middle of next week in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. Once again, the snow geese are at the mercy of time as we sit and wait and watch. This is the 8th time this year that the models have tormented me this far out with possibilities and temptations of storms only to fizzle the idea completely and watch as it goes out to sea well to our south or just fails to develop. I will be watching this possibility as it gets closer to more of the models ranges and see what pans out.

There's a little more than a chill to the air

As of 11:30 PM EST, all temperatures around the northeast are below 20°F, though few places reached high temperatures in the 20s today. With readings this low, wind chills around the northeast are well below zero. In addition, the westerly wind has allowed for the development of a decent lake effect band that is moving from Lake Ontario, through the northern suburbs of Syracuse, NY. Earlier in the day visibilities in this area were down to about 1/10th of a mile. A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect for the NY counties from Lake Ontario, across to Syracuse and to Utica, NY. At the end of this event, the highest snowfalls could easily be above a foot or two.
NWS Lake Effect Snow Warning Update

King of the Cold

Well, the cold has set in and it doesn't seem ready to leave anytime soon. We are now prepared for 200 straight hours of sub freezing temperatures. With highs set to be in the 20's through next week and lows set to be in the teens to single digits, we are in for a cold spell of monstrous proportions. No snow seems to be associated with this artic outbreak, but it seems to me only a matter of time before we get hit with something. The long range models seem to indicate a storm next week, but out that far, the models are unreliable at best. So snow lovers, the no snow season continues and the cold just keeps on coming.