Storm Outlook

Well, if the models and ensembles are right, The New England coastal areas are in for quite a storm. The GFS, which is the furthest south and west, still has several inches of Snow for Southeast New England. However, the GFS is the outlyer, the rest of the models I look at for this far out, 4 in total, show a massive storm off the coast of atleast 984 millibars. The DGEX shows 980 millibars!!! I've seen the words Historic and Blizzard tossed around like candy. The track of the storm is still uncertain and that will greatly affect the area as rain and other forms of frozen precipitation may come into play. Stay tuned for further updates.

The B word Blizzard

The GFS model remains the odd model out while the Euro, DGEX, JMA, and UKMET have gone to the solution of a major snowstorm hitting the Mid-Atlantic and New England.Even the GFS shows a decent storm with roughly 6 inches through the I-95 corridor. The track of this storm must be watched closely as it will determine the snowfall amounts as a powerful Nor'Easter, dare I say Blizzard spins to our south. Stay tuned for further updates.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1100 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN HERKIMER

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY.

Narrow bands of lake effect snow will persist into the overnight hours, before concentrating again into a single heavy band of snow which is forecast to retreat into Oswego and Northern Oneida County by 1 AM.

In areas affected by the most persistent bands, snow totals pf 2 to 5 inches will occur before the snow tapers off.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory is issued when lake effect snow is forecast to develop in the affected ares, but accumulations are expected to remain below 7 inches in a 12 hour period in most areas. Those who must travel in the advisory area should set aside extra driving time to reach their destinations.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio all-hazards or your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

Winter Storm Warning- Lake Effect Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1004 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007

Jefferson-Lewis-Oswego-Northern Oneida

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY.

A band of lake effect snow across Oswego County this evening will become better organized and will lift back north into the area after midnight. The lake snows should be in the form of a single plume in the vicinity of the Tug Hill Plateau by Saturday morning. The moderate to heavy snow is then likely to remain in this general area through much of the weekend.

As a result, fresh snowfall over the weekend could easily total 2 feet across the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall amounts will drop off dramaticall from the vicinity of Watertown and Beaver Falls Northward. Another 5-10 inches of snow is expected in Oswego County and Northern Oneida County.

lake effect snow, the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay Tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and TV stations or check back with this blog for further details and NWS updates.

Winter Storm for New England?

Snow, and potentially lots of it. Thats the story for today as the forecast models play the game of "which way will it go". The latest runs of the models are once again bringing the storm further north, bringing the potential of a major winter storm for the I-95 corridor late Tuesday into Wednesday. With the storm still several days away, it will need to be watched closely. As we have seen many times this winter, the models show us a storm. Once again, we are left asking, is this really going to happen this time?

The lake effect snow machine is still churning in high gear in western New York. Several counties are still under a Winter Storm Warning for lake effect snow and storm totals will break 100 inches in places. I will update the watches and warnings throughout the area this evening.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 944 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN FULTON

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

Scattered snow showers will continue across the area through midnight. A band of heavier lake effect snow showers will drop south across the area after midnight and continue through early Friday morning, producing a quick 2 to 5 inches of snow in many places. Occasional snow showers will then continue through the day Friday, producing another 2 to 4 inches of snow. Snowfall totals, will range from 4 to 8 inches, with the higest amounts west of Route 28 in Herkimer County.

In addition, west winds gusting up to 35 MPH will result in significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

A Lake Effect Snow Advisory means lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel difficult, but accumulations are expected to remain below 7 inches in a 12 hour period in most areas. Those who must travel in the advisory area should set aside extra driving time to reach their destinations and use caution when traveling.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1030 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY.

Lake effect snow has reorganized and will dump another 2 to 4 inches over parts of Wyoming, Chautaqua, Cattaraugus, and Erie Counties. New accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible in the most persistent bands from late tonight through Friday in Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, and Wayne Counties.

In addition to the snowfall, gusty west winds will continue to produce blowing and drifting snow, especially on north/south roads where brief whiteouts are possible.

In lake effect snow, the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region, be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and TV stations for further details and updates from the National Weather Service.