The Winter Storm Watches have spread into Central Pennsylvania. The forecast models have begun to bring the storm inland which would bring about mostly rain. There is also a risk that an ice storm could take place as warmer air flows over the denser cold air.
However, the forecast models are notorious for dancing around with these storms, especially given the configuration of the atmosphere. There is an arctic front coming into the storm which means temperatures while it is snowing will be in the teens and 20s in places. Some places may even be near 10 and snowing. Also, the climatology of storms redeveloping near the Virginia capes says that the storm will move northeast off Cape Cod and intensify as it does so. As the pressures fall, cold air is drawn into the storm and any mix that would normally occur would be snow.
Water temperatues throughout the area are in the lowers 40's with air temperatures below freezing at this time over the ocean. The only bouy reporting above freezing temps is 200 nautical miles south of Long Island. Water temps at the coast according to reading near Providence and Boston are in the mid 30's.
I feel that the density of that air is something the models will miss and the storm should remain mainly snow. This happens with deepening storms with alot of low level cold air, once that fresh cold air gets into the lower levels, precipitation that under normal circumstances would be rain, will remain snow. The water temperatures are not extrodinarily warm and while they will play a part in warming air along the coast, I do not feel they will play a huge factor. The air mass we will be in is just that cold. Therefore, I will presntly forecast a mainly snow event for all locations except Cape Cod and the extreme Southern Coast of MA and RI where a change over to a mix or rain is possible, the further west you go, the better your chances for all Snow.
Stay tuned to your local media stations for further updates.
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