The storm approaches 3- the model calamity continues

The NAM model continues to push the storm up into the Worcester County area in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, the GFS has switched back from a track taking the storm into interior Mass and is sending the storm just east of Cape Cod again. I believe that track to be more correct as the storm will attempt to go around the cold air in place. I still believe that the storm will be mostly snow for most places with the exceptions being Cape Cod and the islands. While Mixing will take place along the coastal areas, especially locations south of Boston, the passage of the storm off the coastand the associated wind shift combined with the upward motion will quickly swing the mix back to snow. The track of this storm, is still very uncertain, making total accumulations all but impossible to tabulate.

Stay tuned to you local medioa outlets for further details.

The Storm Approaches 2- Ice Event??

The Winter Storm Watches have spread into Central Pennsylvania. The forecast models have begun to bring the storm inland which would bring about mostly rain. There is also a risk that an ice storm could take place as warmer air flows over the denser cold air.

However, the forecast models are notorious for dancing around with these storms, especially given the configuration of the atmosphere. There is an arctic front coming into the storm which means temperatures while it is snowing will be in the teens and 20s in places. Some places may even be near 10 and snowing. Also, the climatology of storms redeveloping near the Virginia capes says that the storm will move northeast off Cape Cod and intensify as it does so. As the pressures fall, cold air is drawn into the storm and any mix that would normally occur would be snow.

Water temperatues throughout the area are in the lowers 40's with air temperatures below freezing at this time over the ocean. The only bouy reporting above freezing temps is 200 nautical miles south of Long Island. Water temps at the coast according to reading near Providence and Boston are in the mid 30's.

I feel that the density of that air is something the models will miss and the storm should remain mainly snow. This happens with deepening storms with alot of low level cold air, once that fresh cold air gets into the lower levels, precipitation that under normal circumstances would be rain, will remain snow. The water temperatures are not extrodinarily warm and while they will play a part in warming air along the coast, I do not feel they will play a huge factor. The air mass we will be in is just that cold. Therefore, I will presntly forecast a mainly snow event for all locations except Cape Cod and the extreme Southern Coast of MA and RI where a change over to a mix or rain is possible, the further west you go, the better your chances for all Snow.

Stay tuned to your local media stations for further updates.

The Storm approaches- Winter Storm Watch for Western Pennsylvania

GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A storm system moving in from the Southern Plains will bring the potential for a significant snowfall across the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Although there is some uncertainty with the track and timing, this system has the potential to produce high impact weather across the region.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travle conditions. Stay tuned to your favorite local media for further updates.

An end in sight for Lake Effect Snow

Bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue to oscillate across the eastern Lake Ontario region through Sunday night.

The heaviest bands will remain south of the region through the wee hours of the morning. However, as the winds turn more southwesterly overnight, the band will lift north across Southern Lewis County and reach Southern Jefferson County by morning. The snowbands will then continue to lift north during Sunday and reach the Watertown area by afternoon and possibly reach the St. Lawrence Valley later in the day.

Snow will fall at a rate of 2-4 inches an hour within the most intense bands, but should be migratory enough to limit accumulations to 6-12 inches throughout the area.

The snows should then move back south in conjunction with the cold front. Several more inches of snow can accumulate during the frontal passage. Lake snows should finally shut down Monday Morning. Total storm accumulations have been as high as 110 inches of snow. Winter Storm Warnings -Lake Effect Snow Warning have been posted, for Jefferson, Oswego, Oneida, Lewis, Cayuga and Wayne Counties. Winter Weather Advisories- Lake Effect Snow Advisories, have been posted for Ononodaga and Madison Counties.

Remember, in lake effect snow bands the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region, be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to your local media stations for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

Storm Outlook

Well, if the models and ensembles are right, The New England coastal areas are in for quite a storm. The GFS, which is the furthest south and west, still has several inches of Snow for Southeast New England. However, the GFS is the outlyer, the rest of the models I look at for this far out, 4 in total, show a massive storm off the coast of atleast 984 millibars. The DGEX shows 980 millibars!!! I've seen the words Historic and Blizzard tossed around like candy. The track of the storm is still uncertain and that will greatly affect the area as rain and other forms of frozen precipitation may come into play. Stay tuned for further updates.

The B word Blizzard

The GFS model remains the odd model out while the Euro, DGEX, JMA, and UKMET have gone to the solution of a major snowstorm hitting the Mid-Atlantic and New England.Even the GFS shows a decent storm with roughly 6 inches through the I-95 corridor. The track of this storm must be watched closely as it will determine the snowfall amounts as a powerful Nor'Easter, dare I say Blizzard spins to our south. Stay tuned for further updates.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1100 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN HERKIMER

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY.

Narrow bands of lake effect snow will persist into the overnight hours, before concentrating again into a single heavy band of snow which is forecast to retreat into Oswego and Northern Oneida County by 1 AM.

In areas affected by the most persistent bands, snow totals pf 2 to 5 inches will occur before the snow tapers off.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory is issued when lake effect snow is forecast to develop in the affected ares, but accumulations are expected to remain below 7 inches in a 12 hour period in most areas. Those who must travel in the advisory area should set aside extra driving time to reach their destinations.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio all-hazards or your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.