Snow chance for Sunday night into Monday

Snow is expected in southern New England late Sunday night and Monday. Snow will move into southern New England late Sunday night with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible by the start of travel Monday morning.

The best chance of this early accumulation will be across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts. The snow will continue through Monday and then diminish Monday evening to Snow Showers lasting into Tuesday. Additional snow accumulation is possible during the day and overnight, with heaviest total accumulations expected across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. The snow will come from a storm currently in the Central Plains. This storm will redevelop along the mid Atlantic coast Sunday night and pass south of New England on Monday. The track of the storm will determine where the highest snow amounts will occur. If the actual storm track shifts farther north or south then the heavier amounts would also shift in the same direction. Winter Storm Watches have already been posted as far East as long island for 4-7 inches of snow.

If you plan to travel during the Monday morning commute, you should expect to require a longer time to reach your destination. Stay tuned to the National Weather Service, or your favorite media outlets for later updates.

Observation Format

Tonight I've added a new weather sticker format from Weather For You. This would replace the old RSS feeds from the NWS. Still the same NWS Obs, just in a different format. Please chime in with any opinions.

The game begins again

With a couple of small clipper systems in between this Friday and next, there is really nothing all that huge to talk about. The air will get milder as we go from temperatures in the lower to mid twenties up to temps around freezing with a few days going above freezing. With a little luck, it will give the areas in New York that were hit hard some time to clear a couple feet of snow out of the area. In the mean time, the clipper system this weekend will do nothing more than bring a few flurries to the Boston area, with the following clipper system a coating to 2 inches on Tuesday. The European model is showing another monstrous storm off the east coast by this time next week and that will be the topic of conversation for days to come.

Storm Mode - Ideas coming together

Snow is expected to begin across the region this evening. The snow should quickly become heavy at time by daybreak Wednesday. This will have a significant impact on the Wednesday morning rush hour. In fact, snow may be falling at 1-2 inches per hour by early Wednesday morning, limiting visibilities to a quarter mile at time. The snow will gradually transition to a mixture of precipitation during early Wednesday afternoon as warmer air aloft moves overhead. This will make travel even more hazardous, with some icing possible. Blowing and Drifting snow may beomce an increasing threat Wednesday night and Thursday.

A Heavy Snow Warning is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight Wednesday for Cheshire, Western and Central Hillsborough County NH, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 15-20” of snow across the northwest part of the warning area with isolated 2 foot amounts possible in the east slopes of the Berkshires and the Monadnocks. 8-15” of snow is expected away from this area

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from midnight tonight to midnight Wednesday night for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts, Northwest Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island and Windham County of Northeast Connecticut. Storm totals of 7-14” with significant icing is expected away from the coast, north and west of Route 128 except for Western Kent County RI where 6-10” and considerable icing is expected with 5-8” near the Eastern Massachusetts coast with considerable icing possible

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight through midnight Wednesday night for Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including the South Coasts of RI and Massachusetts. The Cape and Islands are not under an advisory. Total snowfall in this area will range from 3-6” with a glaze of ice possible. Precipitation will mix with ice and change to rain but then change back to ice and snow before ending

A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island including Cape Cod and Islands for the potential of strong to damaging winds in this area Wednesday particularly in the afternoon and evening with the potential for wind gusts of 60-70 MPH. Other parts of Southern New England could see strong winds of up to 40-50 MPH with possible higher gusts which could cause the potential for blizzard or near-blizzard conditions.

Stay tuned to you local media station for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

The Storm approaches 6- uncertain track

The weather models continue to confound any attempt to get a consensus. The WRF is the furthest West, bringing the low pressure center up through New Jersey, and into New York. 3 models, the NAM, GFS and Canadien all send the center across Cape Cod or slightly west of there. Another 3 models, the JMA, Ukmet and NGM, all run the storm in between the 40/70 benchmark and Cape Cod. The Euro, which had run the storm off the coast as well, begins its run at 72 hours into the future, and thus does not allow me to see the storm pass the New England area, but its 72 hour location agrees with that last trio which leads me to believe that the storm will pass closer to Nantucket and the outer cape than it will Boston. I am hoping that the models will come to some sort of agreement later Tuesday.

Tuesday's high temperature is forecast to be 25 degrees. It will be interesting to see how cold it really is and how far south the cold spreads. The storm will begins as snow, and I expect 1-3 inches of snow for most locations on the ground before it changes to a mix from the 128 belt southeastward and to rain on the Cape and coastal areas. The danger of an ice event is still in play as the low level cold air may stick in place in some areas close to Boston. The Rain and mix will then change back to snow Wednesday evening and additional moderate accumulations are possible. The track of this storm will very much tell the tale of precipitation. If the track heads further inland, longer periods of rain and mix will impact the Boston area and the mix could impact as far inland as Worcester. If the storm heads further off-shore, there would be greater snow amounts, especially in the Providence RI, Plymouth MA, Boston MA area as it would snow for longer periods.

The Storm Approaches 5 - The models shift East

All models except 1 now indicate an eastward track close to the 40 north 70 west benchmark, the NAM model being the lone outlyer brings the center of low pressure over Cape Cod near Hyannis. With this track to the storm, the snow totals go up as cold air will remain longer and the change over will be shorter along the coast. I am currently forecasting 5-10 inches of snow in the Boston area down to about Marshfield with accumulations droping off from there toward the cape which will only get 1-2 inches, the danger here, is the ice. I do not believe that temperatures are going to rise all that much and that the mixture that falls will be sleet and/or freezing rain. Ice build up can cause severe problems in a very short time, especially with the wind and snow that will come along with it. Please stay tuned to your local media stations for further details about this potentially dangerous storm.

The Storm Approaches 4- A lot to talk about

A major nor’easter remains likely for most of Southern New England, but while confidence is slowly increasing on the details, uncertainty remains in the forecast. Some models keep an inside runner track over the region resulting in a snow to mix/rain to snow event for the region. Other models, however, remain with an offshore solution closer to the 40 North/70 West benchmark or even further offshore of the region. One model which was converging with the inside track runs is now much further offshore with the system. The exact track of the storm will determine snow amounts and precipitation type over the region, while the intensity of the low along with the storm track will determine how strong the winds will be. Minor coastal flooding is possible if the storm does not move quickly and strong Northeast winds are occurring at the time of high tide

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Tuesday Evening to late Wednesday Night for Southern New Hampshire, Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Massachusetts north and west of a Marshfield to Foxboro line. At this time, a mix or changeover to sleet is possible as far inland as Central New Hampshire and through Northern Connecticut, however, a further offshore solution would bring more snow and less mixed precipitation and increased snowfall amounts.

Due to the uncertainty of this storm, it is imperative that you stay tuned to your local media stations for further updates. Given this storm is one of the first potentially major storms of the 2006-2007 winter, now is the time to prepare and make sure you have needed items at home to weather a nor’easter. This includes food, and drink for several days, winter supplies for the home including a shovel, enough gas for a snowblower and other equipment as well as any appropriate items for a winter survival kit for your car. Unlike some of the past major nor’easters which hit near or on the weekend, this one will affect the work week so preparations should be made in case you run into difficulties during commute time when the storm hits.

The storm approaches 3- the model calamity continues

The NAM model continues to push the storm up into the Worcester County area in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, the GFS has switched back from a track taking the storm into interior Mass and is sending the storm just east of Cape Cod again. I believe that track to be more correct as the storm will attempt to go around the cold air in place. I still believe that the storm will be mostly snow for most places with the exceptions being Cape Cod and the islands. While Mixing will take place along the coastal areas, especially locations south of Boston, the passage of the storm off the coastand the associated wind shift combined with the upward motion will quickly swing the mix back to snow. The track of this storm, is still very uncertain, making total accumulations all but impossible to tabulate.

Stay tuned to you local medioa outlets for further details.

The Storm Approaches 2- Ice Event??

The Winter Storm Watches have spread into Central Pennsylvania. The forecast models have begun to bring the storm inland which would bring about mostly rain. There is also a risk that an ice storm could take place as warmer air flows over the denser cold air.

However, the forecast models are notorious for dancing around with these storms, especially given the configuration of the atmosphere. There is an arctic front coming into the storm which means temperatures while it is snowing will be in the teens and 20s in places. Some places may even be near 10 and snowing. Also, the climatology of storms redeveloping near the Virginia capes says that the storm will move northeast off Cape Cod and intensify as it does so. As the pressures fall, cold air is drawn into the storm and any mix that would normally occur would be snow.

Water temperatues throughout the area are in the lowers 40's with air temperatures below freezing at this time over the ocean. The only bouy reporting above freezing temps is 200 nautical miles south of Long Island. Water temps at the coast according to reading near Providence and Boston are in the mid 30's.

I feel that the density of that air is something the models will miss and the storm should remain mainly snow. This happens with deepening storms with alot of low level cold air, once that fresh cold air gets into the lower levels, precipitation that under normal circumstances would be rain, will remain snow. The water temperatures are not extrodinarily warm and while they will play a part in warming air along the coast, I do not feel they will play a huge factor. The air mass we will be in is just that cold. Therefore, I will presntly forecast a mainly snow event for all locations except Cape Cod and the extreme Southern Coast of MA and RI where a change over to a mix or rain is possible, the further west you go, the better your chances for all Snow.

Stay tuned to your local media stations for further updates.

The Storm approaches- Winter Storm Watch for Western Pennsylvania

GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A storm system moving in from the Southern Plains will bring the potential for a significant snowfall across the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Although there is some uncertainty with the track and timing, this system has the potential to produce high impact weather across the region.

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travle conditions. Stay tuned to your favorite local media for further updates.

An end in sight for Lake Effect Snow

Bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue to oscillate across the eastern Lake Ontario region through Sunday night.

The heaviest bands will remain south of the region through the wee hours of the morning. However, as the winds turn more southwesterly overnight, the band will lift north across Southern Lewis County and reach Southern Jefferson County by morning. The snowbands will then continue to lift north during Sunday and reach the Watertown area by afternoon and possibly reach the St. Lawrence Valley later in the day.

Snow will fall at a rate of 2-4 inches an hour within the most intense bands, but should be migratory enough to limit accumulations to 6-12 inches throughout the area.

The snows should then move back south in conjunction with the cold front. Several more inches of snow can accumulate during the frontal passage. Lake snows should finally shut down Monday Morning. Total storm accumulations have been as high as 110 inches of snow. Winter Storm Warnings -Lake Effect Snow Warning have been posted, for Jefferson, Oswego, Oneida, Lewis, Cayuga and Wayne Counties. Winter Weather Advisories- Lake Effect Snow Advisories, have been posted for Ononodaga and Madison Counties.

Remember, in lake effect snow bands the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region, be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to your local media stations for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

Storm Outlook

Well, if the models and ensembles are right, The New England coastal areas are in for quite a storm. The GFS, which is the furthest south and west, still has several inches of Snow for Southeast New England. However, the GFS is the outlyer, the rest of the models I look at for this far out, 4 in total, show a massive storm off the coast of atleast 984 millibars. The DGEX shows 980 millibars!!! I've seen the words Historic and Blizzard tossed around like candy. The track of the storm is still uncertain and that will greatly affect the area as rain and other forms of frozen precipitation may come into play. Stay tuned for further updates.

The B word Blizzard

The GFS model remains the odd model out while the Euro, DGEX, JMA, and UKMET have gone to the solution of a major snowstorm hitting the Mid-Atlantic and New England.Even the GFS shows a decent storm with roughly 6 inches through the I-95 corridor. The track of this storm must be watched closely as it will determine the snowfall amounts as a powerful Nor'Easter, dare I say Blizzard spins to our south. Stay tuned for further updates.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1100 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN HERKIMER

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY.

Narrow bands of lake effect snow will persist into the overnight hours, before concentrating again into a single heavy band of snow which is forecast to retreat into Oswego and Northern Oneida County by 1 AM.

In areas affected by the most persistent bands, snow totals pf 2 to 5 inches will occur before the snow tapers off.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory is issued when lake effect snow is forecast to develop in the affected ares, but accumulations are expected to remain below 7 inches in a 12 hour period in most areas. Those who must travel in the advisory area should set aside extra driving time to reach their destinations.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio all-hazards or your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

Winter Storm Warning- Lake Effect Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1004 PM EST FRI FEB 9 2007

Jefferson-Lewis-Oswego-Northern Oneida

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY.

A band of lake effect snow across Oswego County this evening will become better organized and will lift back north into the area after midnight. The lake snows should be in the form of a single plume in the vicinity of the Tug Hill Plateau by Saturday morning. The moderate to heavy snow is then likely to remain in this general area through much of the weekend.

As a result, fresh snowfall over the weekend could easily total 2 feet across the Tug Hill Plateau. Snowfall amounts will drop off dramaticall from the vicinity of Watertown and Beaver Falls Northward. Another 5-10 inches of snow is expected in Oswego County and Northern Oneida County.

lake effect snow, the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay Tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and TV stations or check back with this blog for further details and NWS updates.

Winter Storm for New England?

Snow, and potentially lots of it. Thats the story for today as the forecast models play the game of "which way will it go". The latest runs of the models are once again bringing the storm further north, bringing the potential of a major winter storm for the I-95 corridor late Tuesday into Wednesday. With the storm still several days away, it will need to be watched closely. As we have seen many times this winter, the models show us a storm. Once again, we are left asking, is this really going to happen this time?

The lake effect snow machine is still churning in high gear in western New York. Several counties are still under a Winter Storm Warning for lake effect snow and storm totals will break 100 inches in places. I will update the watches and warnings throughout the area this evening.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 944 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN FULTON

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

Scattered snow showers will continue across the area through midnight. A band of heavier lake effect snow showers will drop south across the area after midnight and continue through early Friday morning, producing a quick 2 to 5 inches of snow in many places. Occasional snow showers will then continue through the day Friday, producing another 2 to 4 inches of snow. Snowfall totals, will range from 4 to 8 inches, with the higest amounts west of Route 28 in Herkimer County.

In addition, west winds gusting up to 35 MPH will result in significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

A Lake Effect Snow Advisory means lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel difficult, but accumulations are expected to remain below 7 inches in a 12 hour period in most areas. Those who must travel in the advisory area should set aside extra driving time to reach their destinations and use caution when traveling.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1030 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY.

Lake effect snow has reorganized and will dump another 2 to 4 inches over parts of Wyoming, Chautaqua, Cattaraugus, and Erie Counties. New accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible in the most persistent bands from late tonight through Friday in Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, and Wayne Counties.

In addition to the snowfall, gusty west winds will continue to produce blowing and drifting snow, especially on north/south roads where brief whiteouts are possible.

In lake effect snow, the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region, be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other radio and TV stations for further details and updates from the National Weather Service.

Winter Storm Warning- Lake Effect Snow Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 754 PM EST THU FEB 8 2007

JEFFERSON- OSWEGO-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ONEIDA- NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON

A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect.

Lake Effect Snows are expected over much of the area through 9 PM then settling Southward again late this evening and overnight.

A Lake Effect Snow Warning means significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

A quick 2 to 4 inches is expected from Watertown north, with new accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible in areas in Southern Jefferson County and Northern Cayuga County. 10 to 15 inches of new snow accumulations are possible in Oswego County and on The Tug Hill in Lewis County in the more persistent bands. Oneida County, Northern Herkimer County and Hamilton County can expect and additional 5 to 10 inches of new accumulation. This will bring week long storm total accumulations to more than 90 inches in some areas.

In addition to heavy snowfall, gusty west winds will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, creating hazardous driving conditions with near whiteout conditions at times.

Additional heavy lake effect snow is possible from Friday night into the weekend. Lake Effect Snow Warnings may need to be extended through the weekend.

Travel will be extremely difficult if not impossible at times across the Eastern Lake Onatrio region through Friday morning, especially on north/south roads such as Interstate 81 and Routes 11 and 3. In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands intense enough to drop 1 to several inches of snow per hour for several hours to clear skies just a few miles away. Visibilities vary greatly and can drop to zero within minutes. Travel is strongly discouraged. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road conditions. Commerce could be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Stay tuned to your favorite news outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

Winter Weather Advisory-Wind Chill Advisory

p>URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1006 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR ZERO TO PRODUCE A WIND CHILL AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.

MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET- 1006 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY

West to Northwest winds averaging between 10 and 15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH will combine with temperatures falling to near zero to produce a wind chill near 15 below.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors, make sure to dress in layers and wear a hat and gloves.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Advisory/Blowing snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY

Lake Effect Snow off Lake Erie has once again increased in intensity and is expected to create problems overnight. The areas affected will be mainly over Wyoming and Southern Erie Counties but also the Northern sections of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. Expect 3 to 6 inches of new snow in the most persistent lake effect bands between 9 PM and 6 AM. The low density snow combined with gusty winds wil lalso create hazardous driving conditions in blowing and drifting snow. North/South Routes will be the worst.

Winter Weather Advisory- Lake Effect Snow Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1004 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

On Thursday, Snow showers will redevelop across the area as the band shifts South and weakens. Accumulations will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range from the Thruway North, with up to an inch further south.

Thursday evening, a new band of lake effect snows will develop over the region that may persist into Thursday night and Friday.

While future forecasts will refine the expected location of the band, significant snowfall is possible across the area beginning Thursday night and tapering off during the early afternoon on Friday.

At this time, it appears that the best chances for significant snowfall will be along and north of the New York State Thruway, including locations such as Baldwinsville, Brewerton, Cicero, Rome, and Holland Patent. New snowfall may exceed 7 inches in these locations by the early afternoon on Friday.

A lake Effect Snow Watch means there is a potential for Lake Effect Snows to produce 7 inches or more of snow in 12 hours or less. Which could significantly impact travel. If you are planning to travel in the watch area, please stay tuned to your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service

Winter Storm Watch-Lake Effect Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN ...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A lake effect snow watch remains in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Intense lake effect snows east of Lake Ontario are expected to shift South into portions of Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties Thursday night into Friday. Meandering North and South at times.

There is a potential for a foot or more of snow in the most persistent bands from Thurdday night through Friday as lake effect snows push into the area. A lake effect snow watch means that significant winter weather is possible in localized areas within the next 36 hours. Stay tuned to the NWS and other radio and TV stations for further details or updates.

Winter Storm Warning- Lake Effect Snow Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1045 PM EST WED FEB 7 2007

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT

A band of heavy snow will lift north into portions of Southern and Central Lewis County, Southern Jefferson County, Northern Oswego County, Northern Herkimer County and Northern Hamilton County, late this afternoon and remain nearly stationary overnight and Thursday morning before dropping south again in the afternoon. Snowfall rates will reach 4 to 5 inches per hour under the most intense portion of the band. Additional accumulations of 2 to 3 feet are likely over portions of the Tug Hill tonight…with 12 to 18 inches possible in portions of the Black River Valley and Western Adirondacks.

Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 feet are likely over the Southern sections of Jefferson County with 3 feet possible along the Oswego County line. Additional accumulations tonight will reach 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent bands over the Northern sections of Oswego County, with more snow expected Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 15 inches are expected in the most persistent areas of snow across Northern Herkimer County. 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected in Hamilton County. The snow should be at its heaviest Thursday morning. With areas along or North of Route 28 and West of Route 30 receiving the greatest snowfall. This will bring storm totals for the week to 100 inches or more in some locations.

In addition to the extreme snowfall amounts, strong winds will create near blizzard conditions at times, especially near the edges of the Lake Effect Snow Bands where winds are typically stronger than under the center of the band. The gusty west winds will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. Travel will be extremely difficult or even impossible at times through Thursday evening, especially on North/South roads such as interstate 81.

A Lake Effect Snow Warning means significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast. This will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Lake-Effect Snow showers typically align themselves in bands and will likely be intense enough to drop 1 to several inches of snow per hour for several hours. Visibilities vary greatly and can drop to zero within minues. Travel is strongly discouraged. Commerce could be severely impacted. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Watching and Waiting

The long range forecast models show the potential for a storm the middle of next week in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. Once again, the snow geese are at the mercy of time as we sit and wait and watch. This is the 8th time this year that the models have tormented me this far out with possibilities and temptations of storms only to fizzle the idea completely and watch as it goes out to sea well to our south or just fails to develop. I will be watching this possibility as it gets closer to more of the models ranges and see what pans out.

There's a little more than a chill to the air

As of 11:30 PM EST, all temperatures around the northeast are below 20°F, though few places reached high temperatures in the 20s today. With readings this low, wind chills around the northeast are well below zero. In addition, the westerly wind has allowed for the development of a decent lake effect band that is moving from Lake Ontario, through the northern suburbs of Syracuse, NY. Earlier in the day visibilities in this area were down to about 1/10th of a mile. A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect for the NY counties from Lake Ontario, across to Syracuse and to Utica, NY. At the end of this event, the highest snowfalls could easily be above a foot or two.
NWS Lake Effect Snow Warning Update

King of the Cold

Well, the cold has set in and it doesn't seem ready to leave anytime soon. We are now prepared for 200 straight hours of sub freezing temperatures. With highs set to be in the 20's through next week and lows set to be in the teens to single digits, we are in for a cold spell of monstrous proportions. No snow seems to be associated with this artic outbreak, but it seems to me only a matter of time before we get hit with something. The long range models seem to indicate a storm next week, but out that far, the models are unreliable at best. So snow lovers, the no snow season continues and the cold just keeps on coming.

Jan 31st Winter Storm??

Well, it looks like a dud so far as the storm is still inland. I'm getting hit pretty decently here in Hullas I've got a coating on all surfaces in less than an hour, but the back edge of the snow showers I'm experiencing are already inside I-495 which means I won't even get an inch out of this batch. The forecast calls for 2-4 inches in my area, but unless this storm gets into the moisture, thats just not going to happen.